Account and conversion
Break-even win rate calculator
Win rate and risk/reward work together. A strategy that wins twice as much as it loses per trade can break even while winning only one trade in three. Costs per trade, entered as a fraction of the amount risked (R), raise the win rate needed.
Result
- Break-even win rate
- 33.33%
How it is calculated
Break-even win rate = (1 + cost in R) ÷ (1 + reward-to-risk ratio)
Worked example
With a reward of 2R for every 1R risked and no costs, the break-even win rate is 1 ÷ 3 = 33.33%. With costs of 0.1R per trade it rises to 36.67%.
Assumptions and practical examples
R is the assumed amount lost on a losing trade before the separately entered costs. If that amount is 50 USD and total spread plus commission is 5 USD per trade, cost is 0.1R. At a 2R reward, break-even is (1 + 0.1) ÷ (1 + 2) = 36.67%.
This assumes fixed average wins, losses and the same cost per trade. Different sizes, financing, slippage and variable outcomes require different assumptions. Mathematical break-even is not proof that a strategy will achieve the required win rate.
Questions
What is R?
R is the amount risked on one trade. A 2R winner gains twice what a losing trade loses.
How do I estimate the cost in R?
Divide the spread and commission per trade by the amount risked. For example, 5 USD of costs on a 50 USD risk is 0.1R.
Does breaking even mean the approach works?
Only on paper. A real win rate is uncertain and changes over time, so a margin above break-even matters.
Results are estimates for education; your broker's contract specification and prices decide the real values. Trading leveraged products carries a high risk of losing money.